The Bitcoin OG Whale: trade history, replayed
Hyperliquid +$165M shorting the Oct 10 crash, −$195M on one ETH long
“Bitcoin OG” is the name on-chain analysts such as Lookonchain gave to an early bitcoin holder who opened large BTC and ETH shorts on Hyperliquid just before the crash of 10 October 2025. In this record the BTC short opened on 9 October made about $92.5M and the ETH short on another wallet made about $72.3M on 10 October. The trader then turned long: an ETH long held from December 2025 was liquidated on 31 January 2026, losing about $195M. Because of the timing of the shorts, media called the trader an “insider whale”, but there is no public evidence of inside information, and claims about the trader’s real identity are unconfirmed.
The record at a glance
- Trades
- 10
- Period
- 2025-08-21 → 2026-01-31
- Win rate
- 70.0%
- Net P&L
- +$3.24M
- Biggest win
- +$92.5M
- Biggest loss
- −$195.0M
- Without the 5 best trades
- −$205.6M
- Long / short
- 6 long · 4 short
- Median holding time
- 4.5 d
- Most traded
- ETH (6) · BTC (4)
⚠ Funding payments are not included in any trade.
Trading style, from the data
Computed from all of the trades. These describe what the record shows; the record contains no information about the trader's intentions, so anything about motives is inference, not the trader's own rule.
What stands out
- High win rate, small winners. 70.0% of trades are profitable, but the average win is only 0.4× the average loss; a few large losses can undo many small gains.
- Losers are held longer than winners (median 50.9 d vs 3.3 d). In the data this looks like a tendency to sit with losing positions.
- Without the 5 best trades the overall result turns negative, so the record depends heavily on a handful of trades.
- Short trades netted +$171.2M; long trades −$168.0M.
- ETH is the most traded market (60% of trades), netting −$84.0M.
- Average win
- +$30.0M
- Average loss
- −$68.8M
- Average win ÷ average loss
- 0.44
- Median hold, winners
- 3.3 d
- Median hold, losers
- 50.9 d
- Best 10 trades' share of all gains
- 100%
- Median fills per position
- 12,362
By holding time
| Trades | Win rate | Net P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 hour to 1 day | 2 | 100% | +$72.4M |
| 1 to 7 days | 4 | 75% | +$98.3M |
| Over 7 days | 3 | 33% | −$202.4M |
1 more positions were already open when the record starts, so their holding time is unknown; they are not in this table (net +$35.0M).
Long vs short
| Trades | Win rate | Net P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Long | 6 | 50% | −$168.0M |
| Short | 4 | 100% | +$171.2M |
By quarter
| Trades | Win rate | Net P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q3 | 1 | 100% | +$35.0M |
| 2025 Q4 | 9 | 67% | −$31.7M |
Most traded markets
| Trades | Win rate | Net P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ETH | 6 | 83% | −$84.0M |
| BTC | 4 | 50% | +$87.3M |
Notable trades
Biggest wins
| Opened | Market | Side | Net P&L | Held | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-09 | BTC 0xb317 | Short | +$92.5M | 5.1 d | Replay #2 Free |
| 2025-10-10 | ETH 0x2ea1 | Short | +$72.3M | 17.7 h | Replay #3 Pro |
| 2025-08-21 | ETH 0x2ea1 | Long | +$35.0M | — | Replay #1 Pro |
| 2025-10-19 | BTC 0xb317 | Short | +$6.35M | 3.3 d | Replay #4 Pro |
| 2025-11-03 | ETH 0xb317 | Long | +$2.77M | 7.9 d | Replay #6 Pro |
Biggest losses
| Opened | Market | Side | Net P&L | Held | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-07 | ETH 0xb317 | Long | −$195.0M | 55.1 d | Replay #9 Free |
| 2025-12-11 | BTC 0xb317 | Long | −$10.3M | 50.9 d | Replay #10 Pro |
| 2025-11-03 | BTC 0xb317 | Long | −$1.30M | 4.5 d | Replay #5 Pro |
Free shows a sample of each trader's trades. Pro unlocks every trade and full diagnostics.
About the data
Every BTC and ETH perpetual fill of the two wallets: 0x2ea1 from Hyperliquid's public API, and 0xb317 from the SQD on-chain index (9–25 October 2025) merged with the public API (from 20 October 2025). Rebuilt fill by fill into positions and checked so that each position's fills chain together without gaps. The name comes from public reporting.
Includes two wallets: 0x2ea1 (from 21 Aug 2025, ETH) and 0xb317 (from 9 Oct 2025, BTC and ETH). The first ETH long on 0x2ea1 was already open when the record begins, so how it was built is not shown; SOL trades on 0xb317 are incomplete and not included.
Paul Wei · James Wynn · Machi Big Brother · The White Whale · Andrew Tate · Qwatio · The $10K Wallet · The Airdrop Wallet · The Altcoin Shorter · The Funding Collector · The Swing Wallet · bit Langlang