A high win rate doesn't mean making money
Win rate is the number people show off most, and it says little about whether someone makes money. Machi Big Brother won 62.3% of positions and lost $71.1M; bit Langlang won only 36.8% and made +4.81M USDT. The difference is how big the wins are compared with the losses.
Win rate and result
| Trader | Positions | Win rate | Avg win ÷ avg loss | Net P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The White Whale | 1,628 | 69.5% | 0.53 | +$17.6M |
| The Altcoin Shorter | 348 | 62.9% | 0.90 | +$166K |
| The Airdrop Wallet | 91 | 62.6% | 1.16 | +$145K |
| Machi Big Brother | 411 | 62.3% | 0.14 | −$71.1M |
| Paul Wei | 1,401 | 62.0% | 0.93 | +97.7 BTC |
| The $10K Wallet | 244 | 59.4% | 1.15 | +$1.06M |
| The Swing Wallet | 322 | 57.1% | 0.99 | +$209K |
| The Funding Collector | 680 | 56.3% | 1.29 | +$1.02M |
| Andrew Tate | 162 | 38.3% | 1.01 | −$771K |
| bit Langlang | 4,795 | 36.8% | 3.45 | +4.81M USDT |
| James Wynn | 169 | 29.6% | 1.88 | −$15.6M |
Positions are counted from open to flat; P&L is net of fees, from each trader's full record on this site (including the part only Pro members can replay). Paul Wei's figures are in BTC. Nicknamed wallets are anonymous; the names are ours.
Two opposite records
- Machi Big Brother: wins 62.3% of the time, but the average win is only 0.14 times the average loss. Many small wins, a few very large losses.
- bit Langlang: wins 36.8% of the time, but the average win is 3.45 times the average loss. More losses than wins, and the losses are small.
- The White Whale wins 69.5%, the highest here, with wins 0.53 times the size of losses.
How much comes from the best 10 trades
| Trader | Net P&L | Best 10 trades' share of profit | Without the best 10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| James Wynn | −$15.6M | 97.3% | −$73.2M |
| The White Whale | +$17.6M | 77.7% | −$63.2M |
| Andrew Tate | −$771K | 70.3% | −$1.67M |
| Machi Big Brother | −$71.1M | 69.1% | −$86.4M |
| The Airdrop Wallet | +$145K | 56.4% | −$23.4K |
| The Swing Wallet | +$209K | 48.6% | −$216K |
| The Funding Collector | +$1.02M | 40.5% | −$9.4K |
| The $10K Wallet | +$1.06M | 37.4% | +$88.4K |
| bit Langlang | +4.81M USDT | 33.2% | +1.63M USDT |
| The Altcoin Shorter | +$166K | 26.1% | +$39.5K |
| Paul Wei | +97.7 BTC | 22.0% | +34.7 BTC |
For several traders the result rests on a handful of trades: without its best 10, The White Whale's record goes from +$17.6M to −$63.2M, and James Wynn's best 10 are 97.3% of all the profit. bit Langlang is still at +1.63M USDT without the best 10.
How long winners and losers are held
| Trader | Winners (median hold) | Losers (median hold) |
|---|---|---|
| The White Whale | 7 min | 9 min |
| The Altcoin Shorter | 92.4 h | 71.2 h |
| The Airdrop Wallet | 5.2 h | 1.0 h |
| Machi Big Brother | 2.9 h | 18.3 h |
| Paul Wei | 17.9 h | 17.6 h |
| The $10K Wallet | 9.4 h | 6.1 h |
| The Swing Wallet | 2.2 h | 6.0 h |
| The Funding Collector | 32.8 h | 33.6 h |
| Andrew Tate | 6.2 h | 3.8 h |
| bit Langlang | 11 min | 6 min |
| James Wynn | 27.2 h | 11.4 h |
Holding winners briefly and losers for much longer is a classic pattern: Machi Big Brother's median winner is held 2.9 h, the median loser 18.3 h.
See it trade by trade
Every position behind these numbers can be replayed on the chart, fill by fill. Try blind replay: hide what comes next, decide for yourself, then see what the trader actually did. Which records are included
Questions
Is a high win rate good?
Not on its own. In these records the trader with one of the highest win rates (62.3%) lost the most, because the average loss was far larger than the average win.
What matters more than win rate?
Win rate together with the size of wins compared with losses. A trader who wins 36.8% of the time can do well if the average win is several times the average loss.
Where do these numbers come from?
From the full trade records on Trade Replayer, rebuilt into positions from open to flat, with fees deducted.